Two Numbers That Guarantee Your CFD Trading Success
Making of use of two critical measures of trading performance can dramatically improve your trading results. These two important measurements are the hit rate (winning %) and the risk reward.
Risk reward is calculated by dividing the average win by the average loss. The hit rate is the number of winning trades divided by the total trades. So the hit rate is how often you are right and the risk reward is how much you win when you are right relative to how much you lose when you are wrong.
Lotto versus CFDs
Do you really believe that lotto is the way to make money? The behaviour of millions of people would suggest that it is.
Putting at risk just $10, you stand the chance to make $10 million when playing Lotto. This is excellent odds with your wins 1 million times the size of your losses giving a risk reward of $1 million to 1. This is an exceptional number and unlikely to be repeated anywhere in the investment world.
But there is a problem with buying Lotto tickets as an investment strategy. It is not the risk reward, but the hit rate. If a winning Lotto ticket requires 6 correct balls out of 40 possibilities, then the odds of winning are 3,838,380 to 1.
If you bought 3,838,380 tickets on average one ticket would win and the rest (3,838,379) would lose. This means on average you would have to spend $38,383,790 to win $10 million. Overall playing Lotto would cost you $28,383,790.
So buying Lotto tickets is not going to make money based on the averages. This does not mean that you will necessarily win on the last ticket that you buy. You may be lucky and win on your first, twentieth, or two thousandth ticket, but successful trading is not about luck. Find a profitable opportunity and exploit that advantage.
Can Betting On Rugby Improve Your Trading?
The Crusaders have dominated the Super 14 rugby series in New Zealand in the last 10 years as they won 7 years out of the last ten.
A large bet of $100,000 was made that the Crusaders would win a particular game. The payoff if the Crusaders won was $108,000 so the gambler would receive a profit of just $8,000. With a downside of $100,000 the risk reward is very poor at 8:100 or 0.08.
But the probability of the Crusaders winning the game is very high. For this to be a profitable investment the odds would have to be over 90% that the Crusaders would win the game.
The odds are unknown, but assuming they were 95% then the gambler would win 19 out of 20 times. This means he would win $8,000 x 19 - $100,000 x 1. Overall he expects to win $52,000 from this strategy. So despite the risk reward being very poor it is possible that this is a winning strategy.
A successful CFD trader will find a CFD trading strategy that skews the odds in their favour and then implement that strategy to generate profits. - 23167
Risk reward is calculated by dividing the average win by the average loss. The hit rate is the number of winning trades divided by the total trades. So the hit rate is how often you are right and the risk reward is how much you win when you are right relative to how much you lose when you are wrong.
Lotto versus CFDs
Do you really believe that lotto is the way to make money? The behaviour of millions of people would suggest that it is.
Putting at risk just $10, you stand the chance to make $10 million when playing Lotto. This is excellent odds with your wins 1 million times the size of your losses giving a risk reward of $1 million to 1. This is an exceptional number and unlikely to be repeated anywhere in the investment world.
But there is a problem with buying Lotto tickets as an investment strategy. It is not the risk reward, but the hit rate. If a winning Lotto ticket requires 6 correct balls out of 40 possibilities, then the odds of winning are 3,838,380 to 1.
If you bought 3,838,380 tickets on average one ticket would win and the rest (3,838,379) would lose. This means on average you would have to spend $38,383,790 to win $10 million. Overall playing Lotto would cost you $28,383,790.
So buying Lotto tickets is not going to make money based on the averages. This does not mean that you will necessarily win on the last ticket that you buy. You may be lucky and win on your first, twentieth, or two thousandth ticket, but successful trading is not about luck. Find a profitable opportunity and exploit that advantage.
Can Betting On Rugby Improve Your Trading?
The Crusaders have dominated the Super 14 rugby series in New Zealand in the last 10 years as they won 7 years out of the last ten.
A large bet of $100,000 was made that the Crusaders would win a particular game. The payoff if the Crusaders won was $108,000 so the gambler would receive a profit of just $8,000. With a downside of $100,000 the risk reward is very poor at 8:100 or 0.08.
But the probability of the Crusaders winning the game is very high. For this to be a profitable investment the odds would have to be over 90% that the Crusaders would win the game.
The odds are unknown, but assuming they were 95% then the gambler would win 19 out of 20 times. This means he would win $8,000 x 19 - $100,000 x 1. Overall he expects to win $52,000 from this strategy. So despite the risk reward being very poor it is possible that this is a winning strategy.
A successful CFD trader will find a CFD trading strategy that skews the odds in their favour and then implement that strategy to generate profits. - 23167
About the Author:
Jeff Cartridge has been trading CFDs since they were first launched in Australia in 2002 and created the website LearnCFDs.com Discover the Truth Behind CFD Brokers
posted by X - Men @ 3:03 AM
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