Volatility the Carry Trade and The Macro Trader
If you are a global macro trader you trade anything and everything as long as you can find an exploitable edge. The majority of your trades are across asset classes trading stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. You are looking for uncorrelated returns from multiple asset classes.
They trade not only different asset classes but multiple strategies within each asset class. For instance in stocks they will trade outright long and short positions, merger arbitrage deals, asset class arbitrage where you trade the equity against debt, and even pairs trading. They do much of the same in commodities and currencies as well. Essentially they are looking for sources of return wherever they can find it.
One of the best places for macro traders to really differentiate themselves from other categories is in the currency carry trade. While most people understand what a directional bet is, one in which you buy or short something and if it goes up or down you make money, many do not understand carry.
The carry trade consists of going long a high yielding currency and going short a low yielding currency to fund the trade. You make money in two ways. One is if the initial trade is profitable if the higher yielding currency goes up relative to the low yielder. The other way to earn money is to make money off the carry, or the interest rate differential.
To really juice the returns available from the carry trade you can and probably should use some degree of leverage. Some traders are modest and only use two to four times leverage while others are aggressive and use up to fifty times leverage. While high leverage is great when you are right they can be disaster when you are wrong as the losses are magnified on the way down just like they are on the way up. Of course is it that easy?
No, it is not that easy. If volatility picks up and the carry trade loses favor then the carry will not be enough to make up for the huge loss in capital on the directional side of the trade. If you use too much leverage you will go kaboom and lose all your money.
You can use several different methods to estimate volatility. You can use the standard volatility index for the SP500. While it is designed and used primarily for equities it is a good estimate of volatility for most asset classes. Now days you can just use a currency volatility index like those from JP Morgan or many of the other investment banks.
If you are an active macro trader that is using the carry trade then you should incorporate a volatility filter. If you are not using the carry trade then you are missing out on a great way to diversify as well as deliver more consistent returns. - 23167
They trade not only different asset classes but multiple strategies within each asset class. For instance in stocks they will trade outright long and short positions, merger arbitrage deals, asset class arbitrage where you trade the equity against debt, and even pairs trading. They do much of the same in commodities and currencies as well. Essentially they are looking for sources of return wherever they can find it.
One of the best places for macro traders to really differentiate themselves from other categories is in the currency carry trade. While most people understand what a directional bet is, one in which you buy or short something and if it goes up or down you make money, many do not understand carry.
The carry trade consists of going long a high yielding currency and going short a low yielding currency to fund the trade. You make money in two ways. One is if the initial trade is profitable if the higher yielding currency goes up relative to the low yielder. The other way to earn money is to make money off the carry, or the interest rate differential.
To really juice the returns available from the carry trade you can and probably should use some degree of leverage. Some traders are modest and only use two to four times leverage while others are aggressive and use up to fifty times leverage. While high leverage is great when you are right they can be disaster when you are wrong as the losses are magnified on the way down just like they are on the way up. Of course is it that easy?
No, it is not that easy. If volatility picks up and the carry trade loses favor then the carry will not be enough to make up for the huge loss in capital on the directional side of the trade. If you use too much leverage you will go kaboom and lose all your money.
You can use several different methods to estimate volatility. You can use the standard volatility index for the SP500. While it is designed and used primarily for equities it is a good estimate of volatility for most asset classes. Now days you can just use a currency volatility index like those from JP Morgan or many of the other investment banks.
If you are an active macro trader that is using the carry trade then you should incorporate a volatility filter. If you are not using the carry trade then you are missing out on a great way to diversify as well as deliver more consistent returns. - 23167
About the Author:
If you need actionable trading ideas then check out The Macro Trader It is a weekly global macro trading advisory publication with frequent intra-week updates for time-critical analysis and actionable trading ideas.
posted by X - Men @ 3:29 AM
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