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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

How To Use The Stochastic Oscillator

By Sam Nielson

The Stochastic oscillator will move between 0 and 100. Low readings mean an oversold market while high readings mean an overbought market. Oversold means the market over reacted on the sell off and is ready to bounce upward. Overbought means the market over reacted on the buying and is ready to turn down.

Buy when the Stochastic oscillator is low. Sell when the Stochastic oscillator is high. The idea is to take advantage of other traders when they are emotional: either fearful or greedy. Selling when the Stochastic is high is difficult because you'll want to hang on longer: greed. Buying when the Stochastic is low is difficult because you'll want to sit on the sidelines longer until the chart looks better.

New traders mess up by trying to over simplify trading. They pick just one indicator and use it because it's all they can conceptually understand. Don't do this. The Stochastic indicator needs to be used with other indicators. Why? Consider this. In a sudden buying frenzy, the Stochastic becomes overbought too quickly and will give a premature sell signal. In sudden panic selling, the Stochastic becomes oversold too quickly and will give a premature buy signal. Always use the Stochastic with other indicators.

Should you wait for the Stochastic indicator to turn up before buying? Should you wait for it to turn down before selling? No. If you wait until the Stochastic turns, you'll miss out on making a lot of money. What you are trying to do is enter as soon as the Stochastic indicator reaches an extreme. View very low or very high Stochastic readings as a measure of the emotion in the crowd that is trading your stock. The more the emotion, the better. It is easier to make money from emotional traders than it is from calm, rational traders.

Go long when the Stochastics traces a bullish divergence, that is, when prices fall to a new low but the indicator makes a more shallow low. Go short when the Stochastics traces a bearish divergence, that is, when prices rise to a new high but the indicator ticks down from a lower peak than during the previous rally. In an ideal buying situation, the first Stochastics low is below and the second above the lower reference line. The best sell signals occur when the first top of the Stochastics is above and the second below the upper reference line.

You should not buy a stock when the Stochastic is high. Conversely, you should not sell a stock when the Stochastic is low. This is probably the most accurate way to use the Stochastics. Reverse your thinking and look at it as telling you when NOT to trade a stock. Indeed, moving averages are superior to the Stochastic at picking up on trends, the ADX is better at catching entry and exit points, but the Stochastic is the best at telling you when you should NOT trade a stock. - 23167

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