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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Currency Profile Of GBP (Part I)

By Ahmad Hassam

GBP/USD is the most liquid currency pair in the world and is highly popular with the currency traders. 90% of the global currency trading is pure speculation by the market players. Why is GBP so popular with the currency traders? What are the strength and weakness of GBP? Lets discuss the currency profile of GBP. Another name for the British Pound (GBP) is Pound Sterling. GBP is also known as the Cable. This name most probably struck in the early part of the twentieth century when most of the global trading used to be done through GBP via telex machines run on the cables. GBP used to be the international reserve currency of choice in those days. United Kingdom (UK) is the fourth largest economy in the world. UK has a service oriented economy with manufacturing representing a small part of GDP. Manufacturing is only equivalent to one fifth of GDP.

London is still the forex center of the world. London Stock Exchange is still the second most important stock exchange in the world after the New York Stock Exchange. The British capital market systems are one of the most developed in the world and as a result finance and banking has become a strong contributor to the GDP.

The energy production industry accounts for 10% of GDP which is one of the highest shares of any industrialized nation. Although majority of UK GDP is from services, UK is the largest producer and exporter of natural gas to EU.

Trade deficit is an important economic indicator for determining the strength or weakness of a currency. Overall, UK is a net importer of goods with a consistent trade deficit. Increases in energy prices such as oil will significantly benefit the large number of UK oil exporters. This is important for forex traders as energy prices are positively correlated with GBP.

The two main trading partners for UK are the EU and the US. The United States on an individual basis still remains UKs largest trading partner. However, the largest trading partner of UK is the EU. Trade between UK and EU accounts for almost 50% of UK imports and exports activities!

The leading exports markets for UK exporters are the United States, France, Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands. The leading import sources for UK are Germany, France, United States, Belgium and the Netherlands.

UK had refused to accept Euro when it was introduced keeping the option open to adopt it in the distant future. UK had rejected adopting Euro as its currency in June 2003.The possibility of Euro adoption will still be in the backs of minds of GBP traders for many years to come. Now, it will have significant ramifications for its economy if UK decides to join European Monetary Union (EMU).

The most important of which is the adjustment of UK interest rate with the Eurozone interest rate. One of the primary arguments used against adopting the Euro is that UK has sound macroeconomic policies that have worked very well for the country.

There are many arguments in favor of Euro entry and many against.UK is a highly political country with government officials highly concerned about the voter approval ratings. Right now Brits are not in favor of a Euro entry. The voter opinion can change overtime. However, if the voters do not support Euro entry, the likelihood of EMU entry will decline.

Bank of England: The Bank of England (BOE) is the UKs central bank. The Monetary Policy Committee is the nine member committee that sets the monetary policy for UK. It consists of a governor, two deputy governor, two executive directors of the central bank and four outside experts. The committee was granted operational independence in 1997. - 23167

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