To Succeed in Investing, Don't Become Fixated by Your Own Success
What follows is a true and factual story. A University in the US did an experiment to understand more about the psychology of success. This experiment has subsequently been repeated a number of times at different places and by different people.
The experiment involved getting people to guess the outcome of tossing a coin. You know how it goes, I toss the coin, you guess the outcome and then you are either right or wrong.
Let me ask you a question, if the coin were tossed 500 times how many times would you expect to guess the outcome correctly? That's right around 250 times or 50% of the time. It doesn't matter how clever you are or hard you concentrate the outcome is determined by the laws of probability. Just about everyone understands this and knows it.
What you may not be aware of is that in the 500 tosses there is a fairly good chance that you will put together three or four runs of guessing five tosses in a row correctly. And here is where the psychology of success takes hold. What the university experiment did was asked the people guessing the outcome of the toss how they felt about their performance at various times.
What they found was that when people were having successful runs - four or five or six correct guesses in a row - that they believed that they themselves were responsible for this success. Reasons ranged from, I am getting better at this, to I am now concentrating harder and that is improving my performance.
Let's stop right here. People who know that the outcome of a guess is based on a strict 50% probabilistic outcome believe that when they have a few guesses correct in a row that it is because of their talent and ability. How scary is that.
This same effect occurs with people investing in the stock market all the time - and this is especially the case with people new to investing and trading. The investor or trader begins to believe, after a winning trade or two that they have some super "talent" for picking stocks and shares. They begin to believe that they have some natural talent that makes them better than the average trader.
The outcome, before too long, is that the investor's belief in their own ability results in over confidence. This over confidence results in trading too many stocks or trading without managing the risk inherent in any trade. Unfortunately the stock market has a nasty habit of slapping down over confident traders with a big loss.
The truth here is that every trade involves risk and every trader should be managing risk. This means protecting your capital and not getting carried away with your successes. Beware the Market Slap! - 23167
The experiment involved getting people to guess the outcome of tossing a coin. You know how it goes, I toss the coin, you guess the outcome and then you are either right or wrong.
Let me ask you a question, if the coin were tossed 500 times how many times would you expect to guess the outcome correctly? That's right around 250 times or 50% of the time. It doesn't matter how clever you are or hard you concentrate the outcome is determined by the laws of probability. Just about everyone understands this and knows it.
What you may not be aware of is that in the 500 tosses there is a fairly good chance that you will put together three or four runs of guessing five tosses in a row correctly. And here is where the psychology of success takes hold. What the university experiment did was asked the people guessing the outcome of the toss how they felt about their performance at various times.
What they found was that when people were having successful runs - four or five or six correct guesses in a row - that they believed that they themselves were responsible for this success. Reasons ranged from, I am getting better at this, to I am now concentrating harder and that is improving my performance.
Let's stop right here. People who know that the outcome of a guess is based on a strict 50% probabilistic outcome believe that when they have a few guesses correct in a row that it is because of their talent and ability. How scary is that.
This same effect occurs with people investing in the stock market all the time - and this is especially the case with people new to investing and trading. The investor or trader begins to believe, after a winning trade or two that they have some super "talent" for picking stocks and shares. They begin to believe that they have some natural talent that makes them better than the average trader.
The outcome, before too long, is that the investor's belief in their own ability results in over confidence. This over confidence results in trading too many stocks or trading without managing the risk inherent in any trade. Unfortunately the stock market has a nasty habit of slapping down over confident traders with a big loss.
The truth here is that every trade involves risk and every trader should be managing risk. This means protecting your capital and not getting carried away with your successes. Beware the Market Slap! - 23167
About the Author:
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posted by X - Men @ 2:25 AM
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