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Monday, January 25, 2010

The Pros and Cons of Forex Metatrader 4

By Steve Via

When you want to determine if a trading system is going to be valuable to you, you must preform back testing and demo-ing. This is based on the theory that if a strategy worked well for others, it will work well for the new user. On the other hand, if a strategy did not work well for others, it will fail to work well for the new user.

Benefits Of Doing Demo-ing and Back-testing Evaluations

1. History is known to repeat. When you do a back-test, you can spot any patterns that seem to be repeating.

2. An investor will be able to know what the primary ratios are, like max draw-down, which will allow them to know what to anticipate when utilizing a certain system.

3. Knowing how a system preforms allows an investor to have more assurance when a draw-down period hits. In other words, an investor will know when sticking to the trading rules will be in his/her best interest and when he/she should forget about using the trading system.

4. You can often work out just how well or how badly the trade can work out for you, since the back-testing can produce performance stats.

Downfalls of Utilizing Demo-ing and Back testing

1. Spreads

Spreads can narrow at the slightest sign of surprising news. You might also find differences in the spreads between night and day. The bid and ask prices of the trades might not be able to truly reflect the spread width.

When back-testing, you won't be able to tell as well just how these conditions will turn out, making them unreliable.

2. Counterbalancing GMT

Daylight Savings Time in the U.S. and U.K. may cause the server to fluctuate. The time on the tables will likely not align with the historical data. The result of the time difference is that those tactics utilizing blocks of time in their equations to determine pricing will be skewed.

3. Manipulation By Brokers

There are some brokers who will present nearly ideal trading conditions during a back-test or demo test. However, in live trading ideal conditions are not a reality. The brokers preform this manipulation in order to make more traders want to utilize their services. You can get more information on this topic through online forex forums.

4. Trade Entry Strategy

A system that utilizes market order to make entries may find that it is difficult to get the proper price requested when in live trade conditions. In truth, in live trading conditions, the marking price is constantly changing, making it very difficult to make a manual trade at a specific price. Entry prices in back tests or demo tests will vary from that of live conditions.

Conclusion

By knowing what limitations of back tests and demo test have, investors will be able to gain a better understanding of how different trading systems work and how to gain a better evaluation of a system. Even with these limitations, it is important to understand that back testing does work. - 23167

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