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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Why Price Action Is So Imprortant

By John Oswalt

I would have to say that the most difficult thing for many new and unsuccessful traders to overcome is that they don't really ever learn to have a strong grasp of the market. In fact, most are probably dealing with lagging indicators. These kind of trading systems usually rely heavily on when these indicators match the same trading direction. I'm not trying to demean this, because I actually used to trade like this. But when you take one loss after another, you tend to look for better ways to trade.

Using these kind of trading techniques can't really be expected to work. Making money in the market is a little more complex than that. Think about it. Your buying and selling is based solely on indicators which are only programmed to let you know what has already happened in the market.

I don't mean to be callous but the markets are not concerned about what your indicators are showing you. To the big traders, it means less than nothing. Think about it. Study all the famous and successful traders in history. Do you honestly think that most of them really cared about what the stochastics were doing? NOPE. However, if you do take the time, you will notice that most of these traders really only care about one thing: price action.

There is one thing that you have to know about price action. These successful traders might not have used in the same exact manner, but you can be rest assured that the concepts of price movement were incredibly important to the reason why they would buy or sell. It really just boils down to what has thee price been doing, and how can I profit from it. The harsh truth is there is not really that much separating the rich traders and all the traders who are crashing their accounts. It's not like most of the rich traders went to an Ivy league college. In fact, you will be quite stunned to know that some of them barely got out of high school.

The rich simply enjoy their trading success because they just know how to look at a chart and simply being able to read and understand the market, almost as if it was a book. These are the kind of traders just know why and when the market prices start and stop at certain levels. It's not just a bunch of random colors and lines on a trading platform. There is a lot more to it than that. This is the kind of information that can be used to quit your job and make money full time in the market.

Its not really difficult. Anybody can understand price action. Its just that most people don't want to take the time to really understand how to read the energies of the market. Everybody always wants that holy grail or magical indicator that people can just plug into their trading platform and it'll do all the work for you. Well, it doesn't work like that. It would be a great if it did, but it doesn't. I had to learn that the hard way. But, as is life, you live and you learn.

The most difficult part of this, is to get somebody to actually teach you how to visualize the market in this way. It's quite difficult to learn yourself. If it wasn't, then we would all be millionaires. The majority of the time you just need someone to guide you so you can understand the information that you need to know, and after that you are home free. This is what Trading in The Buff does. I have purchased other courses before and I have been burned. With so many courses out there, it's hard to see the differences between the junky courses and the real courses. But I thought I would give this a shot.

But something interesting happened. I realized everything I need is right IN FRONT OF ME. I just have to eliminate all the crap that's blocking my view. I used to trade with sctochs, FIBOs, Moving averages. It turned out to be the last forex training I'd ever need (It feels really good to say that). I thought I would be wandering around aimlessly from one system to another for as long as I live, or until I was dead broke, which ever came first. But, eventually I just found out that less is more. Not until you see the market's movement in all its glory with no interference, then you can't really say "I am a trader". - 23167

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Real Estate Investment Takes Sweat Equity

By Ray Walberg

Today's real-estate market is leading many to dream of becoming real-estate tycoons: snapping up properties at low cost and selling them at a profit? Is that a dream you can make reality?

It is possible to make real estate investing a profitable venture, but it will not be easy. If you don't know what you are doing, you could lose your investment - or take years to earn it back.

Before you start checking the real estate listings, think about what you want. Are you planning to invest for the long term or do you want to buy quickly and sell quickly? Do you have the money and time to make necessary repairs and upgrades? Do you want the house across the street or properties in Costa Blanca, Spain?

Another important question to consider is how much risk you can handle. Real estate is an especially risky investment because it takes so much time to realize a profit. To reach that profit you have to spend a lot of money: on the property, taxes, repairs, insurance etc. You also have to spend a lot of time: in repairs and in waiting for the market to cycle to a favorable condition for you.

These are not just theoretical questions. Research how much money you have to invest. Write down how much money you want to have in one year, in five years and in 20 years. Determine whether you want to use your primary home as collateral on your investment. (This will increase the size of the loan for which you will be eligible, but it also means you can lose your home if you cannot make your payments.) You may be more comfortable investing money on a smaller "fixer-upper" property.

Many people are tempted by offers to buy a parcel with no money down. These generally involve high interest rates and closing costs. It's a very risky venture because no matter what happens in the market, you will still have to pay the full amount eventually.

Before you take the plunge, learn everything you can about the real estate market. There are many books and periodicals available to teach you the basics. The internet is also a great source of real estate information. You can learn everything you need to know about contracts, mortgages, insurance, legalities etc. The best investment is one that you have spent some time researching.

Be sure you have access to good legal and financial information before you invest. If you don't know your legal rights and responsibilities you could make a serious mistake that could affect your financial health and future.

Real estate investing is not an easy venture, but with careful research and planning, it is possible to get a very healthy return. Because properties are unique, you can have a real adventure in watching changes in your investment. - 23167

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Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Explained

By Ahmad Hassam

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, acronym MACD and pronounced Mac Dee is one of the simple and most reliable technical tools in your trading arsenal as a currency trader. MACD is a trend following momentum oscillator or indicator and is used often by most of the traders.

MACD is a lagging indicators and it shows the relationship between two moving averages of recent prices. Most technical indicators used in technical analysis are lagging. This means they are slow and they just tell you after the fact what just happened.

Technical analysis is based on the belief that all available information is immediately impounded into the prices and the past prices can be used to predict the future prices in the currency markets. Learning technical analysis is must for you if you want to succeed as a currency trader.

Many chart types are used in the technical analysis. Technical analysis helps you to read your charts and analyze the price action with technical indicators. Learning how to use technical indicators is the key to understanding the market behavior.

MACD is calculated by subtracting a slow exponential moving average (EMA) from a fast exponential moving average. Signal line is calculated by the taking the EMA of MACD for a number of bars. The Histogram is the difference between the MACD and its signal line.

MACD is one of the most popular technical indicators in currency trading and is used often. However, beware that MACD is often misunderstood and misused resulting in wrong signals. Like any other technical indicator you should use it in conjunction with other technical indicators for confirmation.

Crossovers: When MACD falls below the signal line from above, it is a bearish signal. It indicates the time to sell. Conversely, when MACD rises above the signal line from below, it is a bullish signal. It indicates that you should buy.

In case of a Divergence, when the price diverges from MACD, it indicates the end of the current trend. Negative Divergence is when the price is rising and MACD is falling. It is an indication of the change in the trend. Thats right; the lagging indicator that is supposed to follow the price is predicting future behavior.

Dramatic Expansion: Dramatic expansion occurs when the shorter moving exponential average pulls away from the longer moving exponential average. Suppose MACD expands dramatically. It is an indication that the currency is overbought/ oversold and may return to normal soon.

One thing should be very clear. All the above three cases are important and should not be overlooked. However, none of them are signals for a trade. For example, MACD Divergence is tradable when confirmed by other indicators. If you simply start trading on MACD Divergence, it may not yield a profitable trade.

However, when planned in advance and confirmed by other technical indicators, success is more likely. This is due to the fact that several things are happening at the same time. Each is attracting the same bulls and bears into the trade that you are planning.

MACD crossovers and dramatic rises are easy to spot. However, spotting MACD divergence takes a little practice. - 23167

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Inside Bar: A Short-Term Trading Pattern

By Chris Blanchet

As far as learning technical analysis goes, many investors will make short-term trades based on longer-term, "solid" patterns such as the head and shoulders top covered previously in this series. The problem with relying on solid patterns is that they are generally longer-term in nature and may not produce the short-term returns one hopes for.

The inside bar pattern is one such pattern from which investors can take short-term cues. This pattern indicates a possible change in investor sentiment in the short-term. In other words, if the overall trend has been heading down, the inside bar often indicates a reversal in that trend.

Spotting an Inside Bar

For investors who are learning technical analysis, identifying the inside bar might be a little more difficult. It involves a taller bar one day, followed a smaller bar the next. The smaller bar consists of a trading range within the preceding day's taller bar.

Supporting Criteria

When it comes to using the inside bar to commit to a trade, investors should seek additional confirmation through additional analysis. This step is often overlooked when investors start learning technical analysis. Other analysis includes fundamental data for the security, sector and market, as well as technical data such as support and resistance levels and momentum.

When it comes to analyzing the inside bar pattern, investors will achieve better trading results from this pattern when the inbound trend is steeper. Additionally, investors will want the first bar to be longer, which suggests the inbound momentum has climaxed. As for the second bar, the narrower the better as this indicates that the reversal will be more dramatic.

Finally, volumes should be smaller on the inside bar than on the first bar.

When people are learning technical analysis, it is often forgotten no single indicator or pattern should be used by itself when making a trade decision. Other analysis is required. For investors who prefer to know when to buy and sell, there is software available that will do exctly that. - 23167

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All About Forex

By Roger Makeman

Gold, Oil and the foreign exchange are three different markets that are reliant on each other. If you want to learn about Forex trading, knowing what one does may give you an insight where the other markets may be heading. It would be greatly advantageous to become familiar with those different markets as a trader and get some Forex education.

Let's have a look at those markets and how they are all connected.

There is an inverse correlation for markets such as gold or oil that are priced in U.S. dollars in the commodities markets. When the U.S. dollar declines, not only do foreign currencies go up, but gold prices also increase. Studies have shown a negative correlation between gold and the dollar that is, they almost never move in together, but almost always move in reverse directions.

The value of EUR/USD versus gold, on the other hand, shows a very high positive correlation, this means that the value of the euro and gold prices often go hand-in-hand, suggesting these markets are both beneficiaries when funds are flowing away from the U.S. dollar.

Gold prices may be considered as an important component in looking at the forex market. A trend change in gold price may give a good indication to where the US dollar may be heading in the Forex market.

A increase in oil prices directly relates to a weakness in the USD. Foreign oil producers view the increase in oil prices as a way to maintain their buying power in U.S. dollar terms. Forex brokers will tell you to counter the impact of higher oil prices a weaker dollar could ultimately give rise to inflation.

Oil is a key commodity causing global economic growth, and oil prices and the foreign exchange have a key relationship in the global market.

Now lets have a look at the impact an increase in oil prices may have on the different major currencies around the world.

Japan: Economy suffers as it relies on imports for most of its energy needs, therefore the Yen weakens.

UK: Benefit the economy as UK produces oil. British pound strengthens.

Oil in world business has a heavy impact on the Forex market. Thus any disturbance in supply is likely to affect the foreign exchange market.

Some of these factors may be terrorist attacks, natural disasters and wars. In such times a shift from the dollar to the euro as the designated currency in crude oil could occur thus causing an immediate decline in the value of the U.S. dollar.

Gold and oil are not the only commodities affected by changes in forex rates. Exports of agricultural produce account for a large share of U.S. farm income.

When the value of the dollar rises, it tends to limit buying interest from an importing nation as the commodity becomes less affordable in terms of that nation's domestic currency.

When the value of the dollar declines, it reduces the price to an importing nation in terms of its currency and encourages it to buy more U.S. agricultural products. The influence that one market has on another market naturally shifts over time so these relationships are not static but should be the subject of ongoing study.

You as a Forex trader should be aware of the influence that those different markets have on the Forex. Though the changes may not happen quickly, it may however give you an insight on any possible trend changes in the near future. Happy trading ! - 23167

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