Trading Strategy Based on Market Sentiment (Part V)

By Ahmad Hassam

When you look at the COT report, you should focus on the non-commercial participants rather than on the commercial participants. You would want to know the reason. Commercial participants are mostly trading forex futures for hedging purposes. They keep on rolling on their positions from month to month for hedging even though they maybe taking losses.

However, large speculators trade the forex futures contract for speculation and capital gains. They do not have any intention of taking delivery of the currency in cash like the commercial participants. Most will immediately close their losing position instead of rolling it over to the next month.

There is a close correlation between the forex futures market and the spot forex market. By gauging market sentiment in the forex futures market, you can also gauge the market sentiment in the spot forex market.

Forex futures are basically spot prices adjusted for the forwards to arrive at the future delivery price based on the interest rate differentials. Near the maturity of the forex futures contract, both the prices converge. Prices become equal on maturity.

The main difference between the spot forex market and the forex futures market is that the spot forex market is Over the Counter (OTC) market. It is not centralized. However, Forex futures are traded on a Centralized Exchange Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

When either the spot or the future price of the currency rises, the other also tends to rise and when either falls, the other also tend to falls. The spot and futures prices of a currency tend to move in tandem. For example, if GBP futures price goes up spot GBP/USD goes up too. You should become familiar with the differences in price quotation system used in both the markets.

By subtracting the total long positions from the total short positions, calculate the net position of the non-commercial contracts in the COT report. The non-commercials tend to register a net long position when a particular currency is trending up against the US Dollar. This is due to the fact that the large speculators mostly hedge funds like to continue riding the trend as long as it lasts.

The opposite is also true when a particular currency is trending down against the US Dollar. The non-commercials will have a net short position when the market is trending down against USD. You can tell if the latest net positioning is skewing towards an extreme reading by comparing the latest net positioning with that of the past few weeks or months.

Dramatic price moves like the major turning points tend to occur when the majority of the market is positioned incorrectly. By keeping an eye on the net directional positioning and net contract volume in the non-commercial category, you can detect turning points in the spot forex market with the COT reports.

You can use your COT report analysis to optimize your trading strategies. Entry and exit cannot be timed solely based on COT report but it can generate warning signals of a possible turn ahead in the spot forex market. What deters many traders from using the COT report is its raw organization of data. COT report is a treasure trove. - 23167

About the Author:

Mr.Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Trade The Forex News! Learn Forex Trading.

Forex Trading

By Matt Ferency

The Forex market is huge. In fact it is one of the top financial markets on the planet. It has no central location so trading goes on 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Forex stands for foreign exchange and is all about trading currencies, changing dollars into pounds, yen into dollars and so on. Big banks and financial institutions trade in the Forex market. Many individuals make money with Forex trading too.

Just like any other type of investing, there is no sure thing when it comes to Forex. You always put your money at risk but you can minimize your risk by learning as much as you can about how the Forex market works before you invest anything.

The best thing that most traders do when learning to trade a market they are unfamiliar with is paper trading. What this does is allows you to play with play money to learn how trading works on that market then once you have establish winning trading habits then you put up real money.

The best thing to do is to go to you're broker and talk to him/her and find out a little more about the Forex market. The broker typically can set you up with some type of training account so that you can learn to trade the market. The nice benefit to trading the Forex market, is that its not like day trading where you need a substantial amount of capitol upfront, and a couple hundred dollars can get you started.

If you are unaware of how to trade the Forex market, and that is the only thing keeping you out. You will be happy to know that there are many different tools that are at your disposal. Using these tools can get you the knowledge you so desperately need so that you can be on you're way to trading.

Lets be honest here, no one wants to just dive into the market not knowing what they are doing and lose everything. You are going to want to take every class you can, and read every piece of literature you can, so that you are properly informed on how to play your money.

Some of the things that are out there today is are newsletters, chat rooms, and even Forex analysis software. If you are more of the internet type you can buy eBooks, or even access broker websites that can help you too.

To get stared in the exciting world of Forex trading, the first thing you should do is seek out an online broker who offers a dummy account that you can set up just as if it was a real money account. You should compare brokers to make sure you find one that provides great service at an affordable price.

It helps if you have an up-to-date computer and high speed Internet access so you can utilize Forex software and access broker websites that use the latest trading technology.

Over a trillion dollars exchanges hands everyday through Forex trading. Many people and businesses make money on the Forex market and you can too if you invest in learning before you invest money in trading. Read books from authors who are successful and respected Forex traders, learn about the various world currencies, and most importantly learn success strategies for maximizing your earnings and minimizing your risks. - 23167

About the Author:

You may read the latest forex articles here.

Demo Trading Is Important For Forex Newbies

By Fred Gunel

Why would anyone throw away their money when there is a way you can prepare yourself for the ills and risks of trading? If you are going to enter the FX market, you should certainly consider the currency demo trading program. If you are planning to throw away your money, then you might as well give it to charity - or me! I could do very well with the money that you will eventually be handing over to your brokers.

Many find the prospects of currency training to be such a thrill. The lure is so attractive: invest your hard earned money in currency and watch the riches roll in. Its so enticing, who wouldnt be sucked in by the promise of a "certain" fortune.

So sadly, too many people allow their thirst to make a fortune to lead them in to dangerous and uncharted waters. Yet by the time they realize that they are at risk for financial ruin, its usually too late. It angers me that on any given day someone is being depleted by the cruel, heartless market. If only they would do their research. The information is readily available, almost anyone could access it. Instead the fools rush blindly toward the mirage of a quick fortune that, sadly, is the currency market.

Many people are being convinced to jump into the market without any training. I believe this is financial suicide, and it inevitably leads to monetary losses. Nobody would go to war, running around and screaming like a maniac, with a lone weapon in their arms.

If it was so easy more people would be raking in the millions. Seriously, people need to start using the age old litmus test "If its too good to be true, it probably isnt". However, it is at least reassuring that more and more brokers are insisting on some training for the newbie traders

In fact more and more brokerage firms are making such training mandatory. Perhaps these firms realize that they have a vested interest in improving the failure rate amongst new traders.

There are many new brokerages available online that are being set up by many small groups of financial experts. I would advise any new new trader to set up their own demo trading account and start experimenting there prior to entering the real market.

Anyone that is interested in entering the market and excelling should be well prepared, and such a trading account will give you the tools that you need to gain a competitive advantage over other new traders in the current market place. If you know of any others who would like to start trading in the currency market, you can begin to advise them too. The currency demo trading program has now been saving money for new traders all over! - 23167

About the Author:

If you want to find out more about how to learn forex, then you should definitely check out: Trading In The Buff.

Knowing How to Buy and Sell A Stock

By Michael Swanson

I'm sure you have your own method to picking out what stocks you like to buy. You might be a value investor who buys based on fundamentals. Or you may be a growth investor who looks for companies that have big earnings growth. Whatever type of stock you buy you need a method to know when to buy and sell.

That is where technical analysis can come in. Technical analysis cannot tell you if a stock is cheap or expensive based on fundamentals, but it can tell you when you should buy and sell, which is just as important. Technical analysis is all about using price action to time your entry and exit points.

There are three principles to technical analysis. First is that market action discounts everything. In other words all of the known information is already factored in price. Knowing information won't give you an edge, because the price already has it factored in.

The second principle is that prices move in trends. There are predictable trends that repeat over and over again that you can take advantage of. The trader's mantra is "the trend is your friend."

The third principle is that history repeats itself. Traders and investors will react in the same way to the same conditions of the past, because the psychological motivations that drive them never change. This enables you to profit from patterns that repeat themselves in the stock market.

From these principles the technician attempts to identify trends in the market and reversals of trends. To distinguish trends from meaningless short-term fluctuations they use one of two types of analysis or a combination thereof: charting and mechanical trading systems. Chartists use graphs of stocks to identify meaningful patterns in the price and volume action of a stock.

The whole secret to investing is to get your emotions out of it as much as possible. Most people by because they fear missing out on more gains and sell when they let losses pile up and can't take them anymore. You just need to make rules to let your winning positions run and cut your losing positions quickly so they won't eat up your account balance.

It is all about learning and planning. You do those two things and you can make money in the stock market. Most investors don't and that is why most investors don't make a whole lot of money in the stock market or are just at average. You can do better if you just take action for yourself. - 23167

About the Author:

For more from Mike Swanson go to WallStreetWindow.com.

Top 5 Investing strategies

By Mr Christopher Latter

1. Advertising: Advertising now occupies the first position amongst all the other investment strategies. With world racing with enormous speed, there is also a subsequent development in the field of media. There are plenty of organizations and companies that are totally dependent on the public people-they manufacture products expecting the public to buy them so that they can make a fortune. And for these products to gain exposure, it needs some level of advertisement among the public. This is where the advertising companies come into the scene. As the number of products increase rapidly, there have been a great demand for advertisements in the same pace. Investing in such advertising companies can ear you good fortune.

2. Long term investment strategies: Investing in long term investing strategies can bring you higher returns. The more you place you investments at a particular place for longer term, the more are the returns. Also investing through long term investing strategy can avoid certain losses and risks. Short term investing strategies of course promise higher returns but are completely volatile if the market situations get worse. Whereas long term investments promise some higher returns besides offering security to the investment you made-the only difference being the time period.

3. Set aside some amount of your income: Setting aside some money as investment is a better investment strategy. No one likes to risk his life when he gets retired and also no one knows how much money he'll get when he retires. So, it is very important to 'make hay when the sun shines'. Set apart some amount of your incomes and invest in some fruit-yielding area so that you don't have to suffer much when you are at your retiring age.

4. Diverse Investments: Diverse investments are investments that are invested in an organization or in a company for a certain period of time until the investors feels satisfied with the amount accumulated. Generally, diverse investments are made keeping the long term high returns in mind. People belonging to both the parties agree to a set of conditions and sign on a contract that clearly specifies the benefits that an investor would get. The company agrees to pay the investor certain percentage of amount from its profits in regards to his investment. Upon accumulating some considerable amount of money, the investor can either choose to withdraw from the company or can choose to continue with the company to make more profits. Generally, it is highly advised to continue with the company as much as possible because, the value of the investment tends to increase with respect to time. The more time the investment is in the company, the more will be its value. This form of investing strategy can draw you higher returns with respect to time.

5. Analyze the trends: Your investments should be regularly analyzed to see that they are constantly on the job of generating higher returns. This is particularly important when you have made your investments in the stocks. Analyzing the trends can help you generate a dynamic investment strategy that can eventually increase in the value of your stock. This also recommended by the industry experts as the stock market is completely volatile no one can ever predict the exact nature of the stock market. Investor should be very careful while making the trading.

The top investing strategies do not occupy the same positions every time. The positions keep on changing according to the market trends. It is highly advised to research the market and recognize the 'fruit-yielding' areas that promise you higher returns for the investments you are making. Also, be prudent in your decisions and never make hasty decisions in a hurry. Thinking before you act twice can benefit you a lot and can possible help you employ a safer approach. - 23167

About the Author:

Learn more about investing strategies by being directed an archive of articles on this subject and other sources closely related to investing strategies.